While I'm not sure what constitutes a seismic shift in nightlife it is hard to believe it is quickly forthcoming. I am not sure I follow - what would be the catalyst? That having been said, by and large I think the thesis is on point that the places at either end of the spectrum will be just fine. There are still enough wealthy people in the world to more than pack places like 1OAK (and for that matter Goldbar/Bijoux/Southside/Bea/Rose, etc.). But because of that fact, namely that what is perceived to be the upper crust of nightlife will most likely remain the same I am not convinced that much is going to change aside from the fact that the 'also ran's' will have a tougher time of it as the overleveraged individuals who were buying bottles at venues like Home / Guest House / Prime / Marquee etc. end up trading down to more conservative nights out with PBR and the funnel over at 'Off the wagon', which, for the record remains as venerable a NY institution as there is.  

this shift has been happening for a year. as the bottle service dollars dwindled clubs/bars/lounges embraced programming which doesnt necessarily cater to the bottle boys and their frat boy aesthetics. over time more creative people who possibly may have been laid off at corporate jobs or need extra bucks as freelance gigs dried up turned to clubs for food. now its floodgates. streams of fabulous people occupying spaces that were once reserved for yuppie scum.. i like it.  

Yuppie scum? That is a bit egregious - I empathize and agree with the fact that the bottle service mentality hurt NY nightlife in some ways but it also helped provide the capital for genuinely unique and innovative places (i.e., the Box) that really could not exist on a nominal door charge. That having been said, the places that still seem to draw the 'celebrities' or 'socials' or whatever you want to call them are the places with the toughest doors and subsequently implicitly attracting the moneyed crowd. I'm all for innovation and creativity in our nightlife - I just don't clearly see it happening to date. At least not in a revolutionary sense. Granted, Steve, I'm sure you're closer to the pulse of the industry - simply from my vantage point (which admittedly is spent mostly in the aforementioned places, so perhaps I have just missed the boat elsewhere).  

You guys (GoaG) are so misinformed. All your articles are clearly written to favor your friends. A few of the places on your list of places that are "established" are getting killed. Ask around town Merkato 55 / Bijoux are a step away from being closed. They owe all of their promoters and employees large sums of money. These places are very expensive to run, especially if you are going to try to do the "high end" bottle service type of thing. Just because a place is busy doesn't mean they are making money. Take a place like Greenhouse, it is packed and the place takes in revenue but, the payouts to promoters and staff are huge. 1Oak is doing well. There revenues are down but, they have low promoter costs. Beatrice, Gold Bar and some of the other smaller places have low overhead so they are going to be fine. Jon B, despite what anyone thinks about him, knows how to make money. Greenhouse, Home and Guesthouse will be fine. Same with Marquee. Kiss and Fly will survive only because bagatelle is putting up HUGE numbers and the rent and costs are split 3 ways in that space. The neighborhood also jumps as the weather heats up. That might be the only hope for Tenjune. Cain Luxe, Tenjune, Mr. West and Bijoux are all in trouble unless things turn around. OH and where is the report on your old favorite the Eldridge???? These guys looking to open in the PM space need to be phsycologicaly tested. Same for the guys opening the Gates. The Tenjune guys have already proven to be crazy because that lotus deal is a disaster. They have been paying rent on the space for a year and they just started demo. They have to be in the whole 7 figures already. Bars are doing really well. Most bar owners I speak with are having their best jan. & feb's ever. If not, their number are strong.  

For Real, interesting insight. Albeit does Bijoux really have that much in the way of promoter costs? The place draws a comparable crowd to 1OAK and doesn't strike me as needing your prototypical promoter to pack them in, namely due to it having established itself at this point. Surprising that Bagatelle could be doing that much better than Merkato - they seem to draw somewhat similar scenes/crowds.  

Merkato is only really busy for the twins brunch on Saturday. Marcus Samuelsson is already done with the space. Bijoux has closed up some of their nights because Merkato is sucking out the profits. The rent for the whole space is very high. The staffing costs at Merkato are probably very high. you would be surprised how many promoters work in a room on any given night. a good test is to find the owners table or a promoter you knows table and look at the bottle of vodka he is drinking. then walk around the room and see how many other tables have that bottle of vodka on it. Those are all comped tables. Very few clubs if any comp grey goose or kettle one which are the primary vodkas buyers purchase in a high end nightclub. For example, i was at 1Oak on Wednesday and the comp bottle was the new belvedere IX. No less then 75% of the tables in the room had them down. All on promoter or owner tables.